Volume 2 - Issue 4, July - August 2026

The re-emergence of U.S. tariff-based protectionism after 2018 has raised important questions about its financial impact on partner economies such as India, whose export earnings depend heavily on access to the U.S. market. This study examines how U.S. tariff shocks, the INR–USD exchange rate, and U.S. macroeconomic conditions have shaped India's merchandise export value to the United States over 2010–2024, using a quantitative, secondary time-series design. Annual data on India's exports to the U.S., a tariff-shock dummy (0 = 2010–2017, 1 = 2018–2024), the INR–USD exchange rate, U.S. real GDP growth, and U.S. CPI inflation were analysed using descriptive statistics, an independent-samples t-test, Pearson correlation, and ordinary least squares (OLS) regression. Results show that India's exports to the U.S. more than tripled over the period, rising from USD 25.6 billion in 2010 to USD 87.3 billion in 2024, with the post-2018 mean significantly higher than the pre-2018 mean (t = −4.65, p = 0.001). The regression model explained 94.6% of the variation in export value (R² = 0.946, adjusted R² = 0.924, F(4,10) = 43.82, p < 0.001), with the INR–USD exchange rate emerging as the strongest and most significant predictor (B ≈ 1,224.27, p < 0.001), while the tariff-shock dummy showed no significant independent effect once exchange-rate and macroeconomic conditions were controlled for. Sectoral analysis of gems & jewellery and pharmaceutical exports showed resilient, if uneven, growth after 2018. The findings suggest that Indias post-tariff export expansion has been driven predominantly by rupee depreciation and U.S. demand conditions rather than by the tariff shock itself, carrying implications for exporters, financial institutions, and policymakers managing external-sector risk.

Madhumitha R G, Dr.V.Deepa Venugopal,"U.S. Tariffs and India's Economy: A Financial Impact Analysis" International Journal of Advanced Multidisciplinary Research and Educational Development, V2(4): Page(58-61) July - August 2026. ISSN: 3107-6513. www.ijamred.com. Published by Scientific and Academic Research Publishing.